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SECTION 1 - INTEREST RATES & MONETARY POLICY

This section analyzes how low and decreasing interest rates have contributed to Secular Stagnation, as well as the inefficiency of monetary policy at the Zero Lower Bound.

 MONETARY POLICIES - EUROZONE ECONOMIES - MENA ECONOMIES

LINE RIFAÏ

MONETARY POLICIES - EUROZONE ECONOMIES -LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIES

PAULA GARZON

This section analyzes how ageing population leads to a lower participation in the workforce and to lower savings, impacting the potential growth of the economy.

 

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SECTION 3 - PUBLIC INVESTMENTS & PUBLIC DEBT

This section analyzes how the lack of investments in developed economies during the past years has impacted negatively potential growth, and how public and private debt crisis have lead to balance sheet recessions, causing Secular Stagnation.

Is Secular Stagnation Over in the USA ?

 

Recent economic figures from the United States show that the country’s economy is recovering rather well from the global crisis. In February, unemployment hit its lowest level in 7 years, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.5 %. Growth figures are also encouraging, with a yearly growth in GDP by 2.2% in the last quarter of 2014, after 5% during the third quarter of last year. These good figures and other elements started to make some economists doubt of the Secular Stagnation theory, at least regarding the US economy.

 

Is the Euro Zone Stuck in Secular Stagnation?

 

For many economists, the question is no more “How Can the Eurozone avoid Secular Stagnation?”, but how it can exit from it.

Indeed, after experiencing a double dip recession, since 2009, the Eurozone is suffering from low growth, the threat of a prolonged period of deflation and an important lack in public investments.

And these symptoms are more visible in the Eurozone, than in any other region in the world, Paul de Growe underlines. Michael Heise adds that it is urgent to address the root of the problem, by improving the investment environment. Whereas Wolfgang Münchau warns that Secular Stagnation in the Eurozone is a greater threat than debt.

 

How Can Japan End Two Decades of Secular Stagnation?

 

Once again, Japan’s economic growth for the last quarter of 2014 was revised lower. The annual GDP figure for 2014 was also pushed down to a slight contraction, instead of a small expansion. This situation shows that, for the moment, Abenomics had shown little result in reviving growth and increasing inflation expectations.

In a recent report on the solutions to escape the secular stagnation trap, the OECD points out that structural reforms are urgently needed in Japan, specially regarding the labor market. An analysis also shared by Bill Elmott and Giovanni Ganelli, who consider that Japan’s main problem comes from labor market rigidity, which hampers labor productivity.

SECTIONS

This sections presents the arguments of the main opponents to the theory of Secular Stagnation. Some consider that Secular Stagnation is only an explanation to poor public policies, while others think that the problem comes from inadequate measurement tools.

SECTION 5 - LIMITS TO THE THEORY OF SECULAR STAGNATION
SECTION 2 - DEMOGRAPHY, SAVINGS & UNEMPLOYMENT

This sections analysis how the decrease in productivity and innovation has reduced the potential growth of the economy which no is stucked in a Secular Stagnation situation. 

SECTION 4 - TFP, INNOVATION & SUPPLY SIDE POTENTIAL
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